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Peak resource use also predicted to happen later than originally projected, probably early May.

PMG PHOTO - Keen Footwear boarded up its downtown store due to the stay-at-home order during the COVID-19 crisis. A new projection says Oregon's hospitals could avoid a massive influx of patients as social distancing is taking effect.A model predicting state-by-state COVID-19 deaths and resource use suggests Oregon could be making progress flattening the curve.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington's School of Medicine developed the interactive analysis in response to governments and hospital systems trying to figure out when COVID-19 would overwhelm their ability to care for patients, according to a press release. It is updated daily, and previously showed Oregon dealing with a shortage of intensive care unit beds.

pmgTuesday morning, March 31, the model showed no bed shortage. The peak hospital resource use date shifted nearly two weeks, from April 24 to May 6.

Washington's updated outlook was not as promising. The state is still expected to face a shortage of ICU beds. Total projected deaths by early August also increased from 1,429 (when KOIN 6 News checked the models on Sunday, March 29) to 1,621 as of Tuesday morning.

The institute updates forecasts based on new information from several sources, including local and national government, the World Health Organization, government declarations on implementation of social distancing policies, American Hospital Association data and age-specific death rate data from China, Italy, South Korea and the United States.

KOIN 6 News is a Portland Tribune media partner.


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