Oregon reported 295 new cases of COVID-19 on Friday, but no new deaths.
The state's death toll remains at 521, while the total number of cases is now 30,342.
The new cases are in the following counties: Baker (1), Benton (4), Clackamas (28), Clatsop (3), Coos (2), Deschutes (7), Douglas (5), Hood River (1), Jackson (14), Jefferson (2), Klamath (2), Lake (1), Lane (20), Linn (5), Malheur (20), Marion (51), Morrow (7), Multnomah (56), Polk (4), Tillamook (2), Umatilla (16), Wasco (3), Washington (36) and Yamhill (5).
The Oregon Health Authority also released new modeling on Friday with some encouraging trends. According to OHA, the modeling shows that "the current rate of transmission is continuing a downward trend that began in mid-July, meaning that each case is generating less than one other case."
OHA said if transmissions continue at their current rate, the total amount of new daily infections would decrease from 360 to 190 by Oct. 8, while newly diagnosed existing infections would decrease to 80 and the number of severe infections (those requiring hospitalization) would decrease to six.
If transmissions decrease by an additional five percentage points in that same time period, OHA said there would be 60 fewer new daily infections (130 rather than 190), 30 fewer newly diagnosed existing infections (50 instead of 80) and four severe infections instead of six.
On the other hand, if transmissions increased by five percentage points during this time period then there would be 210 more new daily infections (400 instead of 190), 80 more newly diagnosed infections (160 instead of 80) and six more severe cases (12 instead of six). Further, the overall rate of transmission would no longer be declining under this scenario.
"As has been shown since the beginning of the pandemic in Oregon, these trends remain very sensitive to small changes in transmission levels," OHA said in a press release. "Wildfires, which started on Labor Day, are widespread throughout Oregon and have led to evacuations of an estimated 40,000 people and extremely hazardous air quality. The wildfires and subsequent poor air quality have decreased availability of community COVID-19 testing, but it is unclear what effects the evacuations and the poor air quality might have on COVID-19 transmission and symptoms."
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