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State health officials reveal three future scenarios, six new deaths and 418 additional cases.

PMG GRAPHIC - State health officials release new figures.The Oregon Health Authority reported Friday that COVID-19 has claimed six more lives in state, raising the state's death toll to 617.

State health officials also reported 418 new confirmed and presumptive cases of COVID-19 as Oct. 16, bringing the state total to 38,935.

And they released their latest update to the modeling projections, which show that COVID-19 has continued to spread in Oregon over the past several weeks and has the potential to continue to keep increasing in its spread.

The model examined three scenarios:

• The first scenario is where transmission continues at its current level for the next several weeks and new infections and cases increase substantially. The model suggests new infections would increase to 2,200 from 1,300 and daily reported cases will increase to 570. Hospitalizations from COVID-19 would increase to 40 a day. The reproductive rate would remain at 1.15

• The next scenario assumes a 5-percentage point increase in transmission. Daily infections would increase to 3,400 and 740 daily reported cases. Hospitalizations would increase to 48 per day. The reproductive rate would be 1.30.

• The most optimistic scenario assumes a drop in transmission by 10 percentage points. That would result in 1,400 daily infections amounting to about 290 daily reported cases. Hospitalizations would drop to 20 per day. The reproduction rate would drop to 0.88.

New cases and deaths

The new cases reported Friday are in the following counties: Benton (2), Clackamas (45), Columbia (3), Coos (5), Crook (1), Curry (1), Deschutes (18), Douglas (5), Jackson (18), Jefferson (3), Klamath (2), Lane (53), Linn (12), Malheur (17), Marion (35), Morrow (5), Multnomah (86), Polk (13), Tillamook (3), Umatilla (17), Wasco (2), Washington (58), and Yamhill (14).

Oregon's 612th COVID-19 death is a 50-year-old man in Jefferson County who tested positive Oct. 6 and died Oct. 14, in his residence. He had underlying conditions.

Oregon's 613th COVID-19 death is an 82-year-old man in Washington County who tested positive Sept. 24 and died Oct. 12, at Providence St. Vincent Medical Center. He had underlying conditions.

Oregon's 614th COVID-19 death is an 88-year-old woman in Curry County who tested positive Oct. 5 and died Oct. 12. Place of death is being confirmed. She had underlying conditions.

Oregon's 615th COVID-19 death is a 65-year-old woman in Washington County who tested positive Aug. 7 and died Sept. 23, at Providence Portland Medical Center. She had underlying conditions.

Oregon's 616th COVID-19 death is a 94-year-old woman in Hood River County who tested positive Oct. 8 and died Oct. 14. Place of death is being confirmed. She had underlying conditions.

Oregon's 617th COVID-19 death is an 81-year-old man in Multnomah County who tested positive Sept. 6 and died Oct. 2, in his residence. He had underlying conditions.


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