Poll: Clinton, Trump lead Oregon party choices
The huge turnout for the Bernie Sanders rally in Portland on Sunday confirms a new poll relating to the 2016 Oregon Democratic primary election.
The DHM Research poll shows the race is wide open, with the Vermont U.S. senator trailing front-runner Hillary Clinton by just five points 44 to 39 percent with 12 percent undecided.
The support for Sanders at the rally is consistent with our polling and his campaign, so far. He is drawing large crowds in states that are liberal and largely white. His ability to attract minorities or do well in conservative states is still unknown, says DHM Vice President and Director of Political Research John Horvick.
The same poll shows the Republican race also is up in the air, with Donald Trump in the lead at 18 percent, followed by Scott Walker at 12 percent, Jeb Bush at 11 percent, and Ted Cruz at 10 percent.
Oregon is like the rest of the nation when it comes to the Republican candidates. Theres a constituency for someone like Trump who speaks his mind, challenges institutions, and sounds like a tough guy, Horvick says.
The poll was conducted from July 22 through 27 and released last Thursday just one days after Clinton was in Portland for a private fundraiser and three days before Sanders drew an estimated 28,000 enthusiastic supporters to the Moda Center. The release also came just hours before the first televised Republican presidential debate.
Despite the closeness of the Democratic contest, 71 percent of all respondents think Clinton will be the Democratic nominee, compared to just 9 percent for Sanders and 14 percent who said they dont know.
Sanders is getting a lot of attention now because hes running a high-profile campaign. Clinton will up her game, too, Horvick says.
When asked who is most likely to win the Republican nomination, regardless of personal preferences, 38 percent of all respondents chose Bush, however. Trump came in second at 12 percent, and 26 percent of respondents were unsure.
The question about Trump is, can he maintain his support or will he peak and fade? And if he does, where does his support go? Horvick says.
Breaking the Democratic results down further, DHM found:
n A majority of younger respondents (ages 18-29) would vote for Bernie Sanders (59 percent) over Clinton (37 percent).
n On the other hand, Democratic respondents ages 65+ would be more likely to vote for Hillary Clinton (49 percent) than Sanders (26 percent).
n Women were more likely to support Hillary Clinton than men (47 percent vs. 38 percent).
n Democratic respondents who live in the tricounty area show more support for Clinton (51 percent) than those who live in the Willamette Valley (46 percent) and the rest of the state (35 percent).
All demographic groups predicted Clinton will win the nomination, including 79 percent among Democrats. Republicans (68 percent) and Nonaffiliated/Other (62 percent) were also highly likely to believe that Clinton would win the nomination.
Among all respondents, Bush was selected as being the most likely to win the Republican nomination. Democratic respondents were significantly more likely to make this prediction: Democrats 54 percent, Republicans 24 percent, and Nonaffiliated/Other 31 percent. Republican respondents also were more likely to be unsure about who would win the Republican nomination than Democratic respondents, (32 to 18 percent.)
Clinton visited Portland on Aug. 5 for a private fundraiser and Sanders appeared at a rally at the Moda Center on Sunday.
The poll was conducted online with respondents who had participated in previous telephone surveys. It has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percent. For the Democrats-only sample, the margin of error is plus or minus 6.9 percent. For the Republicans-only sample, the margin of error is plus or minus 7.7 percent.